It will be a mild fall overall for much of the U.S., with plenty of dry stretches for harvest, especially in the southern half of the country, according to BAM Weather meteorologist Bret Walts, who shared his weather outlook for harvest season during a recent webinar. 

“Record-breaking heat is possible over the next couple weeks (late August, early September) across the Ohio Valley,” Walts says. “There’s going to be a warm stretch into early September. We have another front that will limit how long the heat will hang around. The Canadian Prairies and far Northwest Plains will see more consistently above normal temperatures into September. It will feel like summer a little bit longer across the Canadian Prairies and Western Plains, while the eastern half of the country will start out feeling more like fall.”

It’s been a cooler than normal summer for most of the corn growing states, Walts says. A good chunk of the Midwest is in good shape moisture-wise heading into harvest season, he adds, but there is some risk for drought expansion across parts of the Plains and lower Ohio Valley. 

“June was very active for parts of Iowa and Minnesota — it was the wettest summer of all time for parts of southern Minnesota,” Walts says. “The areas that had more dryness were further down to the south — Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas at times. There were some extreme drought conditions in southern Ohio. They started dry and are ending on a dryer note now. We are lower than normal in terms of soil moisture across parts of the Plains and lower Ohio Valley. There is risk for drought expansion there if we don’t continue to get some rains as we go into September.”

WATCH: Bret Walts and Tyler Williams break down the 2024 harvest weather outlook.  

Walts expects no major early frost or freeze concerns, but he says the Northern Plains would be at a low risk with early September cold fronts. Looking at current forecast models, Walts also believes winter will start with a bang.

“Where data and analogs agree, December is probably the coldest month of the winter,” Walts says. “I think winter gets started off on a fast note, especially across the northern tier of the U.S. From a historical standpoint, these cool, weak La Nina states over the last 20 years, regardless of what’s happened the rest of winter, have started out on a colder note. Even 2016-2017 — that winter was warm overall but started out cold and snowy in December.”

Bayer agronomist Tyler Williams joined the webinar to share insights about cover crop seeding based on Walts’ forecast. He says no-tillers should keep an eye on the forecast before planting cover crops this fall.

“A lot of folks try to get started early and broadcast cover crops, but you definitely want to make sure you either have good moisture in the ground or moisture in the forecast before doing that,” Williams says. “You can lean towards smaller seeded cover crops if you’re going to broadcast them. Pay attention to the forecast. If there’s no rain for a couple weeks and you’re already dry, you’re probably just going to end up throwing money away. You’re better off waiting until after harvest and drilling that cover crop in just to have a better chance of it actually growing.”

Early harvest and late frost could be a plus for cover crop growth, Williams adds. He recommends drilling cover crops if it’s going to be an extended growing season and normal harvest time. And when it comes to managing residue, he advocates for leaving the stalks up.

“I know a lot of people like to lay them down, but if you can leave them upright, it helps capture some of the snow, especially in the northern areas,” Williams says. “You can capture a lot of the moisture from snow, and keep it on your field as opposed to it blowing to the neighbor’s field. That can add up to an inch or two of moisture that you might be able to capture in the winter.”

Williams also encourages strip-tillers to keep an eye on soil moisture if they're making strips this fall.

"You don't want it too wet or too dry," Williams says. "When you're strip-tilling and putting anhydrous on when it's too wet, it could cause some compaction and smearing. But if it's too dry, you might lose that fertilizer. Find the happy button with fall strip-till." 

Click here to watch the Harvest Weather Outlook webinar for more insights and predictions for the 2024 harvest season.